hy the Hong Kong Protests Don’t Guarantee a Tsai Victory in Taiwan

The challenges facing Tsai remain the same, with or without the Hong Kong protests.

The Diplomat
Date: July 25, 2019
By: Lev Nachman and Brian Hioe

With the world’s eyes glued on Hong Kong, many have begun to speculate what role this summer’s

civil unrest will play in neighboring Taiwan’s presidential elections. Considering that Taiwan and Hong Kong share the same underlying political issue – relations with China – it makes sense for politics observers to draw this natural comparison.

While it may seem tempting to speculate that Hong Kong’s protests help make next year’s presidential election a sure thing for pro-Taiwan candidate Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and hurt pro-China candidate Han Kuo-yu of the Nationalist Party (KMT), it is worth reflecting on what issues really matter during presidential elections and analyzing how politicians in Taiwan have already begun to shift the Hong Kong narrative to their party’s favor.

It is questionable whether Hong Kong will remain the most salient issue that frames cross-strait relations for Taiwanese up until January 2020, when elections will take place. It certainly will not be the only issue that does so.    [FULL  STORY]