IISS
Date: 27th September 2019
By: Brendan Taylor

ANALYSIS

Brendan Taylor, author of a new IISS book on Taiwan’s security, explains why, amid shifts in the military balance between China and the US, there is an increasing risk of a cross-strait conflict flaring up and why policymakers should be worried about it.

In your new book, Dangerous Decade: Taiwan’s Security and Crisis Management, you argue that the prospects for a conflict over Taiwan are real and intensifying. Why has the situation deteriorated and why should policymakers be worried about it?

The situation has deteriorated for many reasons, but it is fundamentally down to shifts in the military balance between China and Taiwan and, increasingly, between China and the US. Ever since Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalist forces retreated to the island of Taiwan in the late 1940s following their defeat to the Communists in the Chinese Civil War, America has been able to use its overwhelming military advantage to steer this flashpoint. It has deterred Beijing from using force by suggesting that it might intervene on Taiwan’s behalf, as it did during two strategic crises during the 1950s and again in the mid-1990s. But the US has also dissuaded Taiwan from formally declaring independence, by indicating that its support might not be forthcoming in the event that Taipei were to provoke Beijing unduly.

That equation is now changing due to the significant advances that China’s military has made since the mid-1990s. There is literally no military balance now left to speak of between China and Taiwan. The gap between China and the US is also narrowing, as Beijing develops the wherewithal – through, for instance, its significantly more powerful and accurate anti-shipping missiles – to challenge America’s ability to come to Taiwan’s defence. Indeed, based on current trends, and barring an as yet unanticipated technological breakthrough, America will probably have lost the ability to defend Taiwan within the decade.    [FULL  STORY]

Brand new Perry-class frigate will also be on show in Keelung

Taiwan News
Date: 2019/09/27
By: Matthew Strong, Taiwan News, Staff Writer

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – The public will have the opportunity to visit what the Navy calls the ‘granddad’ of submarines , the oldest still working submarine in the world, in Keelung Saturday (September 28).

The Guppy II-class SS-791 Sea Lion was commissioned in 1945 but went through thorough repairs until last year. Due to Chinese pressure on overseas suppliers of submarines, Taiwan has embarked on a mission to build its own, but the first prototype is still years away.

Black Hawk helicopters will tear through the sky at the opening of an open door event by the Navy in Keelung harbor from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. Saturday, the Central News Agency reported.
[FULL  STORY]

Focus Taiwan
Date: 2019/09/27
By: Elaine Hou and Elizabeth Hsu

Taipei, Sept. 27 (CNA) Taiwan will be included in Saudi Arabia's convenient electronic travel authority

(e-Visa) program, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) said Friday, touting the measure as facilitating tourism exchanges between the two nations.

Saudi Arabia announced the e-Visa measure that day, opening its doors to tourists from 49 countries and territories.

MOFA said in a statement that under the new program, Taiwan nationals will be able to apply for a travel permit to the Islamic nation on its e-Visa website, where applicants are required to complete a form online and pay the fee with a credit card.

The online system will reply via e-mail if the application is approved, the ministry said, noting that Saudi Arabia has not yet announced when the e-Visa program will be introduced.
[FULL  STORY]

Radio Taiwan International
Date: 26 September, 2019
By: Paula Chao

President Tsai Ing-wen says she will pick a running mate at the “most appropriate time.” Tsai was

speaking Thursday.

Taiwan is scheduled to hold its presidential election on January 11 next year. The president is seeking a second term, though she has yet to announce who will run as her vice presidential candidate.    [FULL  STORY]

China could display global leadership by being pragmatic, confident and relaxed about democracy for Hong Kong and Taiwan

YaleGlobal Online
Date: September 26, 2019
By: Humphrey Hawksley

China confronts a dilemma on governance for Hong Kong. “One conclusion being mooted through think tanks in Beijing and Taipei is that the most pragmatic way forward is for China to be confident and counterintuitive enough to grant Hong Kong full democracy,” explains Asia specialist Humphrey Hawksley. “One day of protest attracted as many as 2 million people. When more than a quarter of the population simultaneously takes to the streets, any ruler, dictator or democrat, should know they have a serious problem.” Hong Kong is not alone with expectations, and China’s response has implications for Taiwan and areas with discontent. China could take the lead and avoid violence, respecting the wishes of citizens, granting autonomy on some matters and stepping forward as a genuine protector for its neighbors. China is determined to display global leadership for a world in transition, and dissent is inevitable. Hong Kong would be a good place for launching a strategy that draws appreciation. – YaleGlobal

Beijing, you have a problem: Nearly quarter of Hong Kong's population took to the streets in August to protest a Chinese extradition bill; some demonstrators desecrate the Chinese flag

TAIPEI: The ongoing protests in Hong Kong offer insights into China’s flexibility of governance and its patient ability to challenge the current world order. Much has and will be written on this issue. But for an answer on how governance may unfold, consider Taiwan, which for 70 years has stood in the storm’s eye of a hostile and suspicious China.

One conclusion being mooted through think tanks in Beijing and Taipei is that the most pragmatic way forward is for China to be confident and counterintuitive enough to grant Hong Kong full democracy. Such a move would take the wind out of protesters’ sails, extinguish flames of discontent and enhance China’s global standing while being no threat to its own system of governance. The identities of the think tanks and academics involved remain confidential, but this is their argument.

Hong Kong and Taiwan are both developed economies with highly-educated Chinese populations. Taiwan is a democracy. Hong Kong is not. Sovereign control lies with Beijing, although under the “one country, two systems” agreement between Britain, its freedoms, capitalist system and way of life are meant to continue until 2047.    [FULL  STORY]

Kaohsiung mayor in hot water after commentator dredges up footage showing him promising to drill for oil on Taiping Island

Taiwan News
Date: 2019/09/26
By: Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — In response to itinerant Kaohsiung mayor and Kuomintang (KMT)

presidential candidate Han Kuo-yu's (韓國瑜) denial that he had made a promise to raise money for the city by drilling for oil in the South China Sea, political critic Huang Kuang-chin (黃光芹) cited excerpts from a previous interview in which Han made such a pledge.

During a visit on Monday (Sept. 23) to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) caucus at the city council, Kaohsiung City Councilor Kao Min-lin (高閔琳) asked Han how much of the budget had been allocated for oil drilling on Taiping Island (太平島) of the Spratly Islands (南沙群島). Han then replied, "Who said anything about drilling for oil?"

On her political commentary program "News Face-to-Face" (新聞面對面) on Tuesday, Huang said Han has stepped on a big "landmine" this time, "because even children know that Han had pledged to drill for oil on Taiping Island, and there is even combustible ice." Huang said that she not only has audio and video of Han making this promise but an entire interview in which he focused on the topic.
[FULL  STORY]

Focus Taiwan
Date: 2019/09/26
By: Stacy Hsu, Wen Kui-hsiang and Emerson Lim

Washington, Sept. 25 (CNA) The United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on Wednesday

passed the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act aimed at supporting Taiwan's international presence.

The act, authored by Republican Senator Cory Gardner and sponsored by Democratic Senator Chris Coons, was introduced in May to express U.S. support for Taiwan's diplomatic alliances around the world.

During deliberation over the bipartisan legislation, Gardner mentioned that China's bullying constitutes a "significant threat" to Taiwan's democracy, as shown in the recent shift of allegiance from Taipei to Beijing by the Solomon Islands and Kiribati.

Gardner said that the U.S. has been standing with Taiwan for a long time and that Congress has passed several bills that support Taiwan, such as the Taiwan Travel Act of March 2018.
[FULL  STORY]

Radio Taiwan International
Date: 25 September, 2019
By: John Van Trieste

Two of Taiwan’s allies are calling for Taiwan’s inclusion in the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

The ICAO’s triennial assembly opened in Montreal on Tuesday. Though Taiwan was a guest at the 2013 meeting, it has been barred from subsequent assembly meetings due to pressure from China.

Diplomatic allies St. Kitts and Nevis and Haiti say that Taiwan should not be excluded any longer.
[FULL STORY]

If the United States wants to defend Taiwan, it might consider avenues that refrain from signaling disregard for a delicate security architecture in the Pacific.

The Diplomat
Date: September 25, 2019
By: Jonathan Stutte

In part of its long-term effort to delegitimize Taiwan as an independent state, China has pushed states

to switch their recognition of China from the Republic of China (ROC or Taiwan) to the People’s Republic of China (PRC or China). Last week, both the Solomon Islands and Kiribati switched recognition, leaving only 15 countries left that still recognize the government in Taiwan as representing China.

The United States was swift to respond, not to China, but to the Solomon Islands. Vice President Mike Pence immediately cancelled an upcoming meeting with Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare. Senator Marco Rubio has threatened to explore ways of cutting ties with the islands including ending financial assistance and restricting access to U.S. financing.

The United States has the room to threaten severing ties with the Solomon Islands as the small island nation offers relatively little to U.S. interests in the region. The optics, however, are poor considering the great importance the islands played for the United States in defeating the Japanese in World War II. The move would also be inconsistent with the United States’ own policy, which recognizes the PRC as China and the ROC in Taiwan as a renegade province. Most importantly, the threats signal a growing contempt for U.S. allies and client states if their actions do not contribute directly or materially to American interests in the Pacific. This sacrifices a greater Pacific strategy to keep China in check and defend Taiwan.    [FULL  STORY]