Beijing's talk of aggressive 'reunification' with island risks military confrontation

Nikkei Asian Review
Date: June 7, 2020
By: Minxin Pei

OPINION
Minxin Pei is professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and a nonresident senior fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

The conspicuous omission of the word "peaceful" from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's speech to the National People's Congress in late May, when referring to Beijing's resolve to reunify with Taiwan, has caused much consternation among those tracking cross-strait relations. Important speeches are carefully vetted policy pronouncements. Not having "peaceful" in front of "reunification" could not possibly have been a typo.

To underscore China's determination, General Li Zuocheng, chief of the Joint Staff of the People's Liberation Army, or PLA, declared on May 29 that "if the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people's armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions."

Despite the escalating rhetoric from Beijing, the probability of a military attack on Taiwan remains relatively low for the short to medium term. China has few good military options that will lead to a quick victory. Nevertheless, Beijing's belligerence and acts of military intimidation against Taiwan could generate a vicious cycle and trigger a dangerous confrontation between China and the U.S. in the Taiwan Strait.

Beijing has grown frustrated that its Taiwan policy is not working and the island-nation is drifting further away. Even though Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has pursued a pragmatic and cautious mainland policy to avoid provoking Beijing, the humiliating defeat of the pro-China Kuomintang in the general elections in January raised the prospect that Tsai's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party will dominate Taiwanese politics for the foreseeable future.    [FULL  STORY]