Behind Taiwan's loss of diplomatic allies, what have China, Australia, and the U.S. each gained or lost over last week's Pacific drama?

The News Lens
Date: 2019/09/23
By: Jonathan Pryke

After a public, protracted, and somewhat torturous process, the government of Solomon Islands last

week decided to sever ties with Taiwan in favor of the People’s Republic of China. Days later, in sharp juxtaposition, Kiribati suddenly broke ties with Taiwan too, catching everyone by surprise. Taiwan’s support from Pacific countries was reduced by one-third in just a few short days, demonstrating China’s resolve to marginalize Taiwan diplomatically.

With their combined population outstripping Taiwan’s remaining supporters in the Pacific more than sevenfold, Kiribati and Solomon Islands are a major prize for China. The sixth and seventh nations to swap allegiance since Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) was elected in January 2016 leave Taiwan with just 15 remaining diplomatic allies globally.

For Taiwan, this is a blow, although not a fatal one. Its diplomatic network helps to give it a voice and some legitimacy in multilateral organizations, such as the United Nations, where it is shunned. But the network is largely a symbolic one. No one is under any illusion that if push came to shove these allies could do anything to help Taiwan beyond condemnation of China. A look at UN voting patterns indicates that even support from these allies is not always guaranteed.

Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu announces the severance of diplomatic relations with Kiribati on September 20, 2019.

Military ties, particularly with the United States, are far more important for Taiwan’s enduring sovereignty. Some, including the Taiwanese government, argue that China is ramping up pressure on the diplomatic network to sway next January’s closely contested elections. But the aid spending required to maintain Taiwan’s diplomatic network is not popular in Taiwan, and whatever influence it may be having is surely being undone by the unrest in Hong Kong.    [FULL  STORY]