Independence is not on the cards for Taiwan

In the long run, the failure of ‘one country, two systems’ as a model for peaceful unification will be a bigger loss for Taiwan than mainland China

South China Morning Post
Date: 6 Jul, 2020
By: Alex Lo

Few things in life are certain. That’s why leaders need to judge policies and outcomes in terms of high or low probability. Taiwan politicians, whether of the Kuomintang or the Democratic Progressive Party, operate with the same basic realisation of hardcore realities and therefore the same instinct for survival.

Ideology is less relevant when both sides have heavy guns pointing at each other, something that tends to concentrate minds. This is a deadly game that Taipei and Beijing understand very well, though perhaps not the Americans. In John Bolton’s new book, the former US national security adviser describes Donald Trump as “particularly dyspeptic” about Taiwan.

If Taiwan declares independence, it is almost certain that China will go to war. However, it is far from certain that the United States will be willing to shed American blood to defend a faraway island in Asia. To add to Taiwan’s uncertainty, Washington’s explicit guarantee of intervention is premised on “first blood” aggression from the mainland.    [FULL  STORY]

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