Beijing and Taipei‘s nebulous common understanding is not what it used to be.

The Diplomat
Date: June 02, 2020
By: Derek Grossman

For nearly 30 years, China has routinely touted Taiwan’s recognition of the “1992 Consensus” as the sole basis for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. However, the consensus — an alleged agreement between Taiwan’s then-governing and now opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Beijing on the existence of only “one China” — may hold less relevance for both sides today than in the past.

Significantly, during his delivery on May 22 of a government work report to China’s National People’s Congress (NPC), Premier Li Keqiang left out the 1992 Consensus — the first time this has happened in nine years, dating back to KMT President Ma Ying-jeou’s tenure when he laid the issue to rest by recognizing the agreement. But subsequent NPC work reports on May 23 and 26 reinserted 1992 Consensus language, suggesting it remains Chinese policy. On the Taiwan side, in her inaugural address on May 20 newly re-elected President Tsai Ing-wen omitted any mention of the 1992 Consensus, whereas she spent three paragraphs explaining her views of the consensus during her first inaugural address in 2016.

China’s mixed messages on the consensus and Taiwan’s elimination of it entirely are likely rooted in Chinese President Xi Jinping’s January 2019 speech commemorating the 40th anniversary of a “Message to Compatriots in Taiwan.” In his speech, Xi for the first time conflated the 1992 Consensus with the “one country, two systems” arrangement. This arrangement, under which both Hong Kong and Macau are governed, would entail Taiwan’s recognition of the existence of only one China as ruled from Beijing in exchange for maintaining semi-autonomous status.    [FULL  STORY]