Reading the Tea Leaves in the Taiwan Strait

Is the relationship coming to an end? Has Beijing embarked on a policy of disciplining Taiwan for making the ‘wrong’ choices? It’s simply too soon to tell.

The News Lens
Date: 2016/06/13
By: J. Michael Cole

The million-dollar question that has been asked in recent months is whether Beijing would “punish”

Photo Credit: 臺左維新

Photo Credit: 臺左維新

Taiwan for having made what it considers the “wrong” decision in the January 16 elections by electing Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) of the Democratic Progressive Party. Since then, there have been many hints suggesting that this might be the case, and media, always on the lookout for drama, have feasted on those. But is Beijing truly embarking on a course of action that could only succeed in alienating the Taiwanese?

Two areas that seem to have been selected by Beijing to discipline Taiwan are tourism and education.

In the first instance, various reports have interpreted a drop in tourist arrivals from China following the elections as evidence that new restrictions have been implemented by China to hurt Taiwan’s economy. Last year, more than 4.1 million Chinese visited Taiwan, generating an estimated US$9.7 billion in tourism revenue. According to the Chinese-language United Evening News, the first phase of Beijing’s new policy, which reportedly came into force on March 20, the monthly quota of 150,000 visits to Taiwan was cut by one-third, or 50,000. Citing unnamed “tourism insiders,” the paper said that this is to be cut by another 25,000 in July and 25,000 in October. By then, the total number of approved Chinese tourists to Taiwan would be about 2 million, or half the total for 2014.     [FULL  STORY]

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