FAINT SIGNAL:A former minister said Taiwan had not experienced a positive shock since the cross-strait trade pact and that civil servant pay rises would not be enough
Taipei Times
Date: Sep 26, 2017
By: Ted Chen / Staff reporter
Cathay Financial Holding Co (國泰金控) yesterday said it expects GDP growth next year to slow to 2 percent from 2.1 percent this year, as the expansion phase for the nation’s business cycle nears its conclusion in the absense of clear global growth catalysts.
“The nation’s business cycle is estimated to have entered its expansionary phase in October of 2015 and we are approaching the end of the growth period, which is predicted to last between 24 and 37 months,” said National Central University economics professor Hsu Chih-chiang (徐之強), who led the research team.
Much like other major markets such as the US, China and Europe, where the pace of growth has started to stabilize following a long expansionary period in their business cycles, Taiwan’s most recent expansion cycle has been tepid, Hsu said.
A slowdown in economic expansion would begin to take shape in the second half of this year, with quarterly growth predicted to fall to 0.58 percent between July and September and 0.46 percent in the last quarter of the year, Hsu said
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