CLOUDY AHEAD: The institute revised down its GDP growth forecast for next year on concern that a protracted trade war could deal a blow to the global tech industry

Taipei Times
Date: Oct 20, 2018
By: Crystal Hsu  /  Staff reporter

The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) yesterday raised its economic growth forecast for this year on the back of stronger exports, but slashed its GDP projection for next year when it expects US-China trade tensions would start to bite.

The economy is forecast to expand 2.61 percent this year, up from the 2.48 percent the Taipei-based institute estimated in July, as some local firms benefitted from order transfers after the US imposed higher tariffs on Chinese products, CIER acting president Wang Jiann-chyuan (王健全) said.

Local suppliers of steel products have reported better sales after their Chinese rivals were hit by US tariffs.

However, “a protracted trade war would deal a blow to the world’s technology supply chain and the nation’s export-reliant economy,” Wang told reporters, adding that the impact would be more evident in the first half of next year.    [FULL  STORY]