Polls show only a minority of Americans would favour US soldiers fighting to defend Taiwan, but a decision by Washington not to intervene in a Taiwan Strait conflict would represent a dramatic shift in US strategy

South China Morning Post
Date: 22 Jul 2018
By: Denny Roy

US defence secretary Jim Mattis meets Xu Qiliang, China’s vice-chairman of the

US defense secretary Jim Mattis meets Xu Quiliang, China’s Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, in Beijing last month. Photo: AFP

Central Military Commission, in Beijing last month. Photo: AFP
Despite the perception that Beijing may be committed to politically reunifying Taiwan – by force if necessary – before Xi Jinping retires as paramount leader, US analysts continue to see an attempted invasion of Taiwan as prohibitively risky for China.

As China’s soft power proves ineffective, Beijing relies more heavily on coercion to force political unification on Taipei. China will continue in the coming years to enlarge the gap between its total military power and that of Taiwan, but this observation does not get at the heart of the problem Beijing faces.

Are the US and China headed for war over Taiwan?
Beijing might attempt unification through military means other than invading Taiwan, such as capturing smaller islands claimed by Taipei, imposing a blockade of its ports and main airport, launching cyberattacks against its information and communications infrastructure, and cratering parts of the island with missile attacks.    [FULL  STORY]